Lunch & Learn, Tuesday, May 10, 2022 from 12:00 - 12:50 PM EDT

Agenda
Noon - Presentation
12:45pm - Q&A

Sales Forecasting – A New Approach - Presented by joe shedlawski, cpim, cltd

Sales forecasting is becoming more difficult yet more important, as the future becomes less and less predictable. Mathematical models are limited, by nature, as they only look backwards. Do we really want to look back at 2020? Clearly, it’s high time for a change in approach. 

It’s important to recognize that forecasting in and of itself offers little value. It’s when that forecast is “connected” to a plan for the future, projecting resource requirements, financial performance (P&L and Balance Sheet), sales & marketing KPI’s, and trends, -- that it becomes integral to the planning and management of company performance. Forecasting needs to be done at two levels – the planning level and the scheduling level. They are NOT the same thing.

Forecasts have traditionally been bashed as always being wrong. A more enlightened approach is to start with the assumption that forecasts will rarely be dead-on accurate, and to focus instead upon establishing a range of forecast error with which to plan.

This talk will present a viable forecasting process, focused on four things:

1. Forecasting less detail, not more, -- yielding higher customer service and lower inventory.
2. Emphasizing teamwork, good communications, and clear accountabilities, which are more important than complex, statistical, backward looking forecasting models.
3. Understanding that forecasting is a process, and as such can be improved using standard techniques for process improvement.
4. Knowing it's more beneficial to pursue process improvement than to focus narrowly on forecast accuracy.
   
   

Keywords: forecasting, planning, process improvement

Forecasting – The business function that attempts to predict sales and use of products so they can be purchased or manufactured in appropriate quantities.

Planning – The process of setting goals for the organization and choosing various ways to use the organization’s resources to achieve the goals.

Process improvement – The activities designed to identify and eliminate causes of poor quality, process variation, and non-value-added activities.

Source: APICS Dictionary

Joe Shedlawski, CPIM, CLTD

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joeshedlawski/

  Joe Shedlawski has over 40 years of leadership and supply chain experience in the pharmaceuticals, biotech, and consumer goods industries. Joe directed Supply Chain functions and Sales and Operations Planning at Lederle Consumer Healthcare, Wyeth Lederle Vaccines, Wyeth Consumer Healthcare, and CorePharma, LLC. In 2009, Joe established himself as a consultant, coach, and educator, specializing in Supply Chain, Project Management, and Sales and Operations Planning implementation.

He is recognized as a Master Instructor by APICS for his work in certification training as well as trainer development. Joe has been an adjunct lecturer at seven different universities in the fields of supply chain management, project management, and quality management. Joe served on the APICS Board of Directors in various capacities for nine years, and was the global President of APICS in 2007. He has delivered many seminars and presentations for APICS, IBF, ISM, and numerous businesses.

Joe is an affiliate of the R.A.Stahl Company and Paradoxsolve, LLC. He is a published author in several trade publications. Joe is an active member of the Greater North Jersey of ASCM.  He is a member of the ASCM Partner Development and Sales and Marketing Committees. Joe holds a B.A. in Biology from Bucknell University and an MBA in Finance from Iona College.