“To Forecast or Not to Forecast: How Does a Forecast Add Value?”

presented by Liezl Smith, CPIM, CIRM, CLTD, CSCP, SCOR-P, ACPF, EMLog, DDPP, DDLP

“Lunch-and-Learn” webinar at noon EDT, Wed., 6^th April

A forecast is always wrong and getting worse with increased complexity. There are two extreme ways to look at a forecast - that it is the only thing that drives the supply planning, or that it is so wrong that it is ignored. Then there is a point somewhere in the middle where it is useful. Getting to an accurate forecast is an eternal struggle and traditional planning tools have “forced” us to use the forecast in a certain way.

The world has changed, and we need to adapt. We will look at the time horizons, the forecast ability of products, a broad overview of methods, the relevant ranges, and the conditions under which a forecast adds value and becomes useful in the modern environment. They may not be what you think they are…

Keywords: demand planning, forecast accuracy, supply chain planning

Demand planning – the process of combining statistical forecasting techniques and judgment to construct demand estimates for products.

Forecast accuracy – a measurement of forecast usefulness, often defined as the average difference between the forecast value and the actual value.

Supply chain planning – the determination of a set of polices and procedures that govern the operation of a supply chain.

Source: APICS Dictionary

Speaker Biography

Liezl Smith (Johannesburg, South Africa) is a professionally registered Industrial Engineer with a passion for Supply Chain Management, both from a process and optimisation point of view. She completed her undergraduate work at the University of Stellenbosch and her Master’s (Cum Laude) in Engineering Management at the University of Pretoria.

Smith started her career as a Management Trainee with British American Tobacco, and then moved into a consulting role. She has implemented and supported APS software systems, including Manugistics Demand and Supply, Demantra Demand and Numetrics Supply and Scheduling packages. She has been running her own consulting and training business for 17 years, specialising in the field of business planning and optimisation, including demand management, S&OP, logistics, and warehouse management. She is a lecturer for operations management at the University of Pretoria.

Smith served for 9 years on the Board of Directors of SAPICS, the Association for Operations Management in South Africa, including two terms as president. On a personal note, she plays the viola in various ensembles and performs regularly. She has two children, aged 20 and 18 years old. If she must choose a career again, it would be a flower farmer!

https://www.linkedin.com/in/liezl-smith-pr-eng-cpim-cirm-cscp-acpf-ddpp-ddlp-558344b/